Dr. Ram Bajaj Bikaner Differ on Kerala "onset" monsoon

- June 01, 2021

Date - 1 June 2021

Time - 1 pm

Kerala monsoon will not "onset" on June 3. It will take a couple of weeks to be more active. Below normal rainfall is forecasted in Kerala these days. Similarly, the monsoon in Mumbai will also not "onset" on time. It will differ very much. Dr. Ram Bajaj

1. " India, as well as Kerala, has witnessed a change in the monsoon pattern. This is because of warning of the Arabian Sea which has contributed to a climate change ". Dr. Ram Bajaj

2. Another major reason for the change of monsoon pattern in Kerala and subsequently the Indian pattern of monsoon is the formation of cyclones during the onset of monsoon. Cyclone Vayu in 2019 June and Cyclone Nisarga in 2020 June adversely affected the progress of the monsoon. Dr. Ram Bajaj

3. This year it was Cyclone Tauktae and Yaas two cyclones with a gap of 7 days in May.

4. While we use to get heavy rainfall during the June - July period, the rainy days have now shifted to August - September.

5. Meanwhile Kerala and as well India has received a large excess rainfall especially Kerala 125%, Delhi, Orrisa, Bihar, Jharkhand, and parts of U.P.

6. For Kerala the rainfall was 64% excess in March and 21% excess in April. The state received 732.8 m.m of rain from March to May 28 as against normal rainfall of 326.2 m.m. This indicates and fear of monsoon pattern in Kerala and fear of monsoon pattern in Kerala and as well as in India also please note for the coming days of monsoon.

7. A normal monsoon hits Kerala around June and covers the rest of the country by Mid - July is imperative for the agriculture sector especially this year because of the pandemic. But the change of pattern of monsoon in Kerala and the rest of the country will greatly suffer the agriculture sector this year. Please note very seriously.

8. The I.M.D declares the monsoon "onset" over Kerala when factors including rainfall of 2.5 m.m or more are repeated from the designated 14 weather stations, for two consecutive days any time after May 10. The other factors are the value of the wind field and outgoing longwave radiation over the South-East, Arabian Sea. As per M.Mohapatra Director-General I.M.D "At present, the criteria are not the fully satisfied condition will gradually become favorable from June 1. He further stated that the rainfall over Kerala decreased along with the weakening of westerly winds on Sunday (30 May ) and also the depth of westerly winds did not increase up to 4.5 km against the expectations. The convective cloud development leading to the enchantment of rainfall activity over Kerala in such a Scenario is not expected at least up to June 1." I.M.D chief was referring to certain parameters and current indications.

a. Deficient rainfall in Kerala Date 28, 29, 30, 31 May 2021.