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 LOCKDOWN will impact temperature in the country and will bring INTENSE PRE MONSOON SHOWERS in the coming month of MAY 2020  

Satellite images show how air pollution has changed during lockdown. Because of the temperature changes in the country, isolated and intense thunderstorms are expected to develop, which will bring down intense pre monsoon showers. 

The drop in pollution levels due to shut down of factories and vehicles of road - have an effect on temperatures - PARTICULARLY  at night and may bring intense pre monsoon showers - rain in the coming weeks, frequently.  As per the discussions and data analysis with climate experts, the absence of air pollutants could bring intense showers or even rain in few parts of the country in the last week of April and in May. Particles suspended in the atmosphere trap the heat and let the cloud evaporate easily as per the laws of Physics; because the transfer of heat takes place immediately. At the same time, in the absence of aerosols ( an aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas. Example of natural aerosols are fog, dust and geyser steam. Example of anthropogenic aerosols are haze, particular air pollutants and smoke ) will help cloud hang in for a longer period.

Factors like wind direction too play an important role in daily temperature variations. If the winds are calm during lockdown, we can study if the temperature is dropping in the night. As per the IMD director, clean air could also lead to an increase in day temperature as the sun's radiation penetrates the Earth directly. But the YEA Raj , former deputy general of IMD said the absence of Carbondioxide and aerosol particles in the air will help radiation from Sun to go back to the space
unhindered, resulting in land cooling up faster. Few other experts also have the same opinion.
"This will result in a drop in temperature , presumably in Rajasthan, lower by 0.5 degree celsius to 1 degree celsius" said YEA.

But other factors like the amount of incoming radiations during day, humidity levels, CO2 and wind directions will also play a role. However, he said that it required careful analysis of pollutants level and observational meteorological data for a LONGER PERIOD before and during the lockdown to see if there was a change in the weather pattern. This may not be a proper answer. Whatever the data available today, we have to analyse and give the proper answer for more showers in this year's pre monsoon season and monsoon season. Futher he also said that the maximum amount of gases in the atmosphere are nitrogen and oxygen while CO2 is very less.

 So even if there is a variation in temperature due to the low pollution- it would be negligible. IMD director should keep in mind that this is not so simple, that the temperature variations due to the low pollution would be negligible. No, this is certainly not the case. In the absence of CO2 and aerosol particles in the air ( certainly less than regular) would help radiations from Sun go back to the space unhindered which will result in land cooling up faster and drop down of temperature by 1 degree celsius to 1.5 degree celsius. But other factors like sunlight duration in the day, humidity level, CO2 and wind directions & its speed play a major role. This drop in temperature will me more at night which WILL bring INTENSE PRE MONSOON SHOWERS in comings days and weeks of April and May 2020. But it certainly requires careful analysis of pollutants level and meteorological data for each day, regularly, to forecast the pre monsoon showers and changes in the weather pattern. Maximum temperature and minimum temperature of day and night, humidity and slower wind velocity are the indicator for pre monsoon showers. Of course the pollutants level is most important factor for the pre monsoon showers in the coming weeks.

The IMD on Wednesday dated 22 April 2020 forecasts a Normal Southwest monsoon over the country. The IMD did not need any data's to forecast such a Normal Southwest monsoon in the country- specially in case of lockdown in India. Our IMD department records of such forecast in previous years have been watched by the country very carefully and, everybody knows it very well, how much IMD was correct in the previous years.

As per'Accu weather', published on April 9 2020,"As India remains in a nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic a stifling heat way, first of the season for the country, is set to unfold."This will bring down isolated thunderstorms mostly during afternoon hours across northeastern India. Satellite images show how air pollution has changed during the pandemic. Prof. Sridhar Balasubramanian climate expert from IIT Bombay said the absence of air pollutants could bring intense pre monsoon showers in April and May 2020.

Yes, certainly, these activities in the country will bring along isolated thunderstorms and the pre monsoon showers, because the particles suspended in the atmosphere trap more heat which will let the clouds evaporate and help clouds hang in atmosphere for longer time because of the absence of aerosols in the air. The sunrays heat the ground by radiations. The ground heats the air by conduction and the warm air rises in space is called convection. Heat conduction also is called diffusion, is the direct microscopic exchange of kinectic energy of particles through the boundary between two systems.

When an object is at different temperature from another body or its surrounding in atmosphere, heat flows so that the body and the surroundings, reach the same temperature. Such spontaneous heat transfer always occur from a region of high temperature to another region of lower temperature, as it follows the second law of thermodynamics. So in fact, the heat radiates from the ground in the lower atmosphere. In conduction, heat moves from areas of more heat to area of less heat by direct contact. Warmer molecules vibrate rapidly and collide with other nearby molecules, transferring their energy and so on to another molecules. Heat transfer by movement of heated materials is called convection. Due to lockdown these activities in lower atmosphere increases very rapidly.

How much IMPACT the current LOCKDOWN has on our Environment, Temperature and Weather?
Our experts have analysed and worked out the difference between short term changes and long term trends in the month of April 2020 - climate now. It is noticed that in Europe - in March, average temperature were almost 2 degree celsius above the 1981-2010 average. The figures are much more extreme in the parts of Ukraine and Russia as the temperature varies between 6 to 8 degree celsius. In these areas, it was also drier than might have expected. Soil moisture and relative humidity are down. However our experts are unable to analyse all these variations in India.

Satellite data published by NASA has revealed that air pollution over nothern India has plummeted to a 20-year low for this time of the year. NASA satellite sensors have found that aerosol levels are at a 20 year low post the nationwide lockdown.
Note: We are also working and analysing the effects of "Solar Minimum" - A Sun Lockdown on Climates

About Writer
Dr. Ram Bajaj
Engineer ( BITS PILANI )
Scientist
Agriculturist
Economist
Email: info@rambajaj.com